Yunnan's Silicon Metal Production Reduction Policy Is Partially Implemented, And The Output Impacts Geometrically

According to SMM statistics, the output of silicon metal in Yunnan in August was 71,000 tons. Taking into account the rainfall and power supply in Yunnan this year, we originally expected that all silicon metal production areas in western Yunnan will enter the dry season at the end of October. Normally, the output of Yunnan from September to December will be about 190,000 tons. about. However, due to the double red lights of energy consumption in Yunnan Province in the first half of the year, after the implementation of the production restriction policy, we make the following assumptions about the supply of silicon metal in Yunnan from September to December:

  1. If the Yunnan silicon plant's existing start-up continues until the end of October, all silicon companies will stop production from November to December. Yunnan's September-October output was 54,000 and 25,000 tons, respectively, and the total output from September to December was 79,000 tons, a decrease of 58% from normal conditions. The output of silicon metal in Yunnan in 2021 will be 327,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 249,000 tons and a drop of 43.2%.

  2. If Yunnan silicon companies maintain their current start-ups in September, they will implement the policy of monthly average output not higher than 10% of August output from October to December. The output of silicon metal in Yunnan from September to December was 61,000 tons, which was 68% lower than the situation without the implementation of the dual control policy. The output of silicon metal in Yunnan in 2021 will be 309,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 267,000 tons and a 46% decrease.